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2:00PM Water Cooler 6/24/2022 | naked capitalism

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By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Chook Music of the Day

Booted Warbler, Ratchaburi, Thailand. Picked from amongst recordings from Scotland and India. Fairly a spread!

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Politics

“However what’s authorities itself, however the best of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

“They’d realized nothing, and forgotten nothing.” –Charles Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord

“When the going will get bizarre, the bizarre flip professional.” –Hunter Thompson

Roe v. Wade

“Supreme Court docket overturns constitutional proper to abortion” [SCOTUSblog]. “The Supreme Court docket on Friday eradicated the constitutional proper to acquire an abortion, casting apart 49 years of precedent that started with Roe v. Wade. The choice by Justice Samuel Alito will set off a seismic shift in reproductive rights throughout the US. It should permit states to ban abortion, and specialists anticipate about half the states to take action. In one of the vital anticipated rulings in many years, the courtroom overturned Roe, which first declared a constitutional proper to abortion in 1973, and Deliberate Parenthood v. Casey, which re-affirmed that proper in 1992. The choice adopted the leak in early Might of a draft opinion displaying {that a} majority of the justices had been privately poised to take that step. On Friday, they made it official. The vote to overturn Roe was 5-4. Justices Clarence Thomas, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett joined Alito’s opinion. Chief Justice John Roberts didn’t be part of the opinion. He agreed with the bulk that the Mississippi abortion restriction at difficulty within the case needs to be upheld, however in a separate opinion, he argued that the courtroom shouldn’t have overturned Roe.” • Here is the opinion.

“Supreme Court docket’s Abortion Ruling Places States in Highlight” [Wall Street Journal]. “By eliminating a constitutional proper to an abortion, the excessive courtroom’s ruling returns the issue to the states, and about half of them, largely led by Republicans, have been poised to ban many or most abortions if Roe was wiped away. Different Democrat-led states are transferring to guard entry to the process, in some instances preparing for visitors from states the place abortion will probably be unavailable. And in politically numerous states with divided authorities, clashes over the trail ahead on abortion coverage may proceed for years. ‘That is going to place abortion towards the middle of our politics for the foreseeable future,’ mentioned Steven Greene, a political-science professor at North Carolina State College. Advocates on each side of the problem mentioned that the ruling would place extra concentrate on state and native elections, as a result of governors, state lawmakers and attorneys basic will maintain new energy to enact and implement a broader array of abortion insurance policies. Meaning these contests may see extra funding and assist from nationwide teams and donors.”

Thomas, in his concurring opinion, says the quiet half out loud. “Substantive due process” is subsequent:

(Oddly, Loving v. Virginia shouldn’t be on Thomas’s checklist; “a little personal privilege carve-out.“) Commentary:

Can a D&D participant within the readership unpack this?

Flaccid Democrat response (1):

When counterpoising the rhetoric of ethical claims, I feel “abortion is homicide” vs. “intensely private” wins simply. As we see.

Flaccid Democrat response (2):

Flaccid Democrat response (3):

Too unhealthy we don’t have a Democrat Lincoln to fireplace some generals ’til we get a Grant.

Flaccid Democrat response (4):

So why not nuke the filbuster, have each Democrat homes codify Roe v. Wade into regulation — and substantive due course of whereas we’re at it — and put a invoice on Biden’s desk for him to signal? How about it, President Manchin?

Failure has many mother and father. Right here’s one:

(One of many happier by-products of this actually ugly resolution could also be a ultimate burial of bourgeios feminism (+ its Democrat faction (+ that portion of the NGO complicated)), which merely didn’t ship on defending a medical process they rightly seen as important.)

“Abortion in America — the highway to rolling again Roe vs Wade” [Lyz Lenz, Financial Times]. Rising up within the Christian proper: “None of my siblings consider what we had been taught. We’ve all grown up. Only a few even go to church. A few of my sisters have been victims of abuse and assault. Some have had youngsters, obtained divorced, confronted poverty and loss. One sister, after a devastating automotive accident, needed to declare chapter at 18 within the face of overwhelming medical payments. Some are queer. Some are single moms. Anti-abortion rhetoric solely works if you’re by no means poor, by no means a sufferer, by no means with out medical health insurance, have by no means discovered your self bleeding in a dorm room, not sure methods to identify what occurred to you however afraid you’ll be pregnant and lose every thing you’ve fought so onerous for, that factor ladies so hardly ever get — freedom. Anti-abortion rhetoric solely works in the event you don’t know that your sister has a medical situation that might imply demise if she will get pregnant. Anti-abortion rhetoric solely works in the event you’ve by no means seen your pal recuperate from a violent beating by the hands of her boyfriend. By no means labored at a ladies’s shelter and seen the wives of pastors are available sobbing, secretly on contraception, as a result of they can not afford to have one other baby. So, how did I, the indoctrinated daughter of the American conservative proper, develop as much as champion the very trigger I had been advised was evil? Easy: I lived life as an American girl.” • Nicely price a learn.

Capitol Seizure

“The Jan. 6 Hearings Have Been So A lot Higher Than I Anticipated” [Michelle Goldberg, New York Times]. “With Trump, nevertheless, the query has by no means been whether or not he’s dedicated outrageous misdeeds, however whether or not these misdeeds might be made to matter. Time and again, the reply to that query has been no. It’d nonetheless be no. However the hearings are having extra of an influence than I anticipated. The choice by the Home minority chief, Kevin McCarthy, to maintain pro-Trump Republicans off the Jan. 6 committee has eradicated the back-and-forth bloviating that sometimes plague congressional inquiries, permitting investigators to current their findings with the narrative cohesion of a very good true-crime collection.” That is vital: “For some, the hearings are doing greater than that. Dustin Stockton helped manage the pro-Trump bus tour that culminated within the Jan. 6 rally on the Ellipse in entrance of the White Home. Politico once called him and his fiancée, Jennifer Lawrence, the ‘Bonnie and Clyde of MAGA world.’ On Tuesday, after a listening to that included testimony by Rusty Bowers, the speaker of the Arizona Home, and the Georgia election employees Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss, Stockton tweeted, ‘This has been essentially the most impactful of the January sixth Committee hearings. Embarrassed that I used to be fooled by the Fulton County ‘suitcases of ballots’ hoax.’”

“Excessive drama as Jan. 6 listening to particulars Trump’s effort to deprave Justice Division” [ABC]. “Thursday’s listening to of the Jan. 6 committee targeted on the strain then-President Donald Trump and his allies placed on the Justice Division to assist overturn the 2020 election.” • On the Constitutional degree, I’m not aghast at this. There was an enormous scandal in 2006 when Bush the Youthful fired a bunch of United States attorneys, however they’re political appointees ffs; they “serve on the pleasure of the President.” On the pragmatic degree, the sample is that Trump tries to get this or that individual to do that or that. The individual refuses. Trump drops it, and strikes alongside. As a matter of regulation, I don’t know methods to body this. However an assault on the Winter Palace this isn’t. Extra: “Chair Bennie Thompson, D-Miss., closed by previewing the main target of hearings to come back in July, calling the Jan. 6 mob assault on the Capitol Trump’s of stopping the switch of energy’ if he couldn’t get away with a ‘political coup.’” What the heck is a “political coup”? A norms violation? Extra: “‘We’re going to present how Donald Trump tapped into the specter of violence, how he summoned a mob to Washington and the way — after corruption and political strain did not preserve Donald Trump in workplace — violence grew to become the final possibility,’ he mentioned.” • Nicely, I’m glad finally we’ve got a principle of the case concerning the relation between the Capitol seizure and the remainder of Trump’s efforts, as a result of I’ve been asking for that for a while. However as of now, I’m not shopping for it. If the rioters managed to cease the rely, the Home strikes the rely elsewhere and holds it later. How does that not occur?

“Ron Johnson now says he helped coordinate effort to cross false elector slates to Pence, however his new clarification drew a fast rebuke” [USA Today]. “After initially claiming to be ‘principally unaware’ of an effort by his employees to get faux presidential elector paperwork to Vice President Mike Pence, U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson mentioned Thursday he coordinated with a Wisconsin lawyer to cross alongside such data and alleged a Pennsylvania congressman introduced slates of faux electors to his workplace — a declare that was instantly disputed. Proof offered this week by the U.S. Home committee investigating the Jan. 6 assault on the U.S. Capitol confirmed Johnson’s chief of employees tried to ship the 2 states’ lists of faux presidential electors for former President Donald Trump to Pence on the morning of the U.S. Capitol rebellion however was rebuffed by Pence’s aide. Johnson initially advised reporters this week he didn’t know the place the paperwork got here from and that his employees sought to ahead it to Pence. However he mentioned in a Thursday interview on WIBA-AM that he had since found the paperwork got here from Pennsylvania U.S. Rep. Mike Kelly, and acknowledged he coordinated with Dane County lawyer Jim Troupis and his chief of employees by textual content message that morning to get to Pence a doc Troupis described as relating to ‘Wisconsin electors.’ Kelly’s workplace instantly pushed again on Johnson’s declare, saying: “Senator Johnson’s statements about Consultant Kelly are obviously false.’ ‘Mr. Kelly has not spoken to Sen. Johnson for the higher a part of a decade, and he has no data of the claims Mr. Johnson is making associated to the 2020 election.’”

Biden Administration

“Harris meets Democratic attorneys basic as White Home gears up for abortion ruling” [Reuters]. “U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris met a gaggle of seven Democratic attorneys basic on Thursday to debate the protection to a serious ruling that might dramatically curtail abortion rights within the nation…. ‘We’ll begin preliminary discussions about how state attorneys basic have energy, might have the facility on the very least to difficulty steering to make sure that individuals of their state know their rights, that they’ve the facility to evaluate and probably problem the constitutionality of legal guidelines which might be being handed of their state,’ Harris mentioned.” • Oh. In the meantime:

Might it’s — hear me out — that we’re not “all on this collectively”?

2022

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PA: Oops:

PA:

Fetterman’s marketing campaign is nice on the Twitter. I don’t assume anyone ever gained a marketing campaign there, although.

WY: “Cheney urging Wyoming Democrats to change events to vote for her in main” [The Hill]. “Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) is seeking to recruit registered Democrats to change their occasion affiliation to be able to vote for her in Wyoming’s Aug. 16 main. Her marketing campaign web site presents directions for a way voters can change their occasion affiliation to be able to vote within the Republican main and even directs them to a Wyoming voter registration change kind. The New York Occasions additionally reported on Thursday that Cheney’s marketing campaign has been sending out mailers to Wyoming Democratic voters with details about voting within the Republican main. Wyoming permits voters to vary their occasion affiliations by mail as much as 14 days earlier than the first. Voters also can change their occasion affiliation on the polls. Cheney is dealing with a hotly contested main in August towards Republican Harriet Hageman. Former President Donald Trump endorsed Hageman as a part of his effort to oust Cheney for her vote final 12 months to question him for his function within the Jan. 6, 2021, riot on the U.S. Capitol.” • Merger of liberal Democrats and By no means Trump Republicans continues apace. One thinks of scorpions mating.

Democrats en Déshabillé

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Social gathering (“the Democrat Social gathering is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated post, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “stay” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Social gathering is, actually, a tough downside. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Social gathering is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Social gathering didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working components of the Social gathering reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Social gathering (ka-ching, however not totally) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence group.

Word, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

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“The Gerontocracy of the Democratic Social gathering Doesn’t Perceive That We’re on the Brink” [Jamelle Bouie, New York Times]. “I’m reminded of the historian Jefferson Cowie’s argument concerning the New Deal’s relationship to the American political order. In ‘The Nice Exception: The New Deal and the Limits of American Politics,’ Cowie argues for an interpretation of the US within the twentieth century that treats the New Deal period, from the administration of Franklin Roosevelt to the Nineteen Seventies, as a ‘sustained deviation from among the important contours of American political observe, financial construction, and cultural outlook.’ The Nice Despair and World Battle II might have ‘compelled clear realignments of American politics and sophistication relations,’ Cowie writes, ‘however these adjustments had been much less the linear triumph of the welfare state than the product of very particular, and short-lived, historic circumstances.’ If that is true — if the New Deal was the product of extremely contingent circumstances unlikely to be repeated both now or sooner or later — then the problem for these dedicated to the notion of a authorities that protects and expands the collective financial rights of the American individuals is to forge a brand new imaginative and prescient for what that is likely to be. Cowie writes, I feel you’ll be able to apply an identical ‘nice exception’ evaluation to the many years of institutional stability and orderly partisan competitors that formed the present technology of Democratic leaders, together with the president and lots of of his closest allies. They got here into nationwide politics in an age of bipartisan consensus and centrist policymaking, at a time when the events and their coalitions had been much less ideological and extra geographically assorted. However this, too, was a historic aberration, the results of political and social dynamics — such because the broad prosperity of the economic financial order at residence — that had been already nicely in decline by the point that Biden, Pelosi, Feinstein and others first took workplace. American politics since then has reverted to an earlier state of heightened division, partisanship and fierce electoral competitors. Even the authoritarianism on show within the Republican Social gathering has antecedents within the conduct of Southern political elites on the finish of the nineteenth century and the start of the twentieth. Hundreds of thousands of Democratic voters can see and really feel that American politics has modified in profound methods since at the very least the Nineties, and so they need their leaders to behave, and react, accordingly.” • Nicely price a learn, amazingly for the Occasions Op-Ed part.

Realignment and Legitimacy

“How Elites Misinterpret Public Opinion” [Politico]. “Most of our theories of politics in democracies emphasize this notion that there’s public opinion: Our political leaders are taking note of public opinion, and so they’re forming coverage consequently. However one factor that these elite experiments are actually good at displaying is that oftentimes elites are literally misinformed about what the general public needs — that elites are basically misreading the room. So within the context of American politics, there are experiments the place you go to state legislators, and also you inform them extra about what their constituents truly take into consideration given points, and also you see if it impacts their political conduct. Equally, in a international coverage context, there are researchers who’ve carried out a lot of nice research the place they right misperceptions about what the general public needs and see how that impacts elite decision-making. There are a bunch of regularities that people doing this type of analysis have observed. For instance, the general public is more likely to consider that international warming exists, that local weather change is actual and that it’s being attributable to human beings than elites assume the general public believes. Equally, elites are likely to have this assumption that the general public is way more isolationist in international coverage than the general public truly is.” • Jogs my memory of this morning’s hyperlink: Power causes brain damage.

#COVID19

I’m however a humble tape-watcher, and I’m perplexed concerning the present state of play. Case knowledge is displaying the fiddling-and-diddling conduct attribute of a peak. Nonetheless, nothing I hear in anecdotal case knowledge tells me there’s any reduction. Hospitalization knowledge (trailing) is easing (and so the hospital-centric public well being institution in all probability thinks Covid is completed). Positivity knowledge (main) has been fiddling and diddling because it too does at peaks. Then once more, waste-water knowledge (main) is barely downThe wild card is variants BA.4/5 (and I believed we had been alleged to be giving names to those issues). All of the variant sources I’ve say BA.4/5 are up, however they differ as to how a lot and the place, and the information is 2 weeks behind (hat tip, CDC; who may have recognized we’d want to trace variant knowledge?). I’m reminded of the “stairstep” (see the Case rely chart under: I muttered about this on the time) that marked the Delta/Omicron transition, simply earlier than Omicron’s superb take-off. Maybe a BA.4/5 transition will exhibit the identical conduct. OTOH, I could possibly be projecting patterns into clouds.

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• Maskstravaganza: Medical professionals who don’t masks up, a thread:

• Maskstravaganza: And that’s an order:


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In the event you missed it, right here’s a publish on my queasiness with CDC numbers, particularly case rely, which I (nonetheless) take into account most vital, regardless of what Walensky’s psychos at CDC who invented “community levels” assume. However these are the numbers we’ve got.

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I can not discover a case rely chart that integrates regional and nationwide subtotals, so we’re that a lot stupider. I believed the New York Occasions had the nicest knowledge presentationL

Case rely for the United States:

The totals are or much less degree, however underneath the hood the BA.4/5 are making up a larger and larger proportion of instances. Keep in mind that instances are undercounted, one supply saying by a factor of six, Gottlieb thinking we only pick up one in seven or eight.) Therefore, I take the case rely and multiply it by six to approximate the actual degree of instances, and draw the DNC-blue “Biden Line” at that time. Yesterday, the rely was ~ 97,000. As we speak, it’s 99,600, and 99,600 * 6 = a Biden line at 597,600. Not less than we’ve got affirmation that the extraordinary mass of case anecdotes had a foundation in actuality. (Bear in mind these knowledge factors are weekly averages, so each day fluctuations are smoothed out.) The black “Fauci Line” is a counter to triumphalism, because it compares present ranges to previous crises.

From the Walgreen’s test positivity tracker:

0.7%. (I’m leaving the company brand on as a slap to and examine on the goons at CDC.)

Wastewater knowledge, regional (Biobot Analytics), June 22:

Wastewater knowledge (CDC), June 4 – June 18:

CDC’s wastewater chart is down once more.

Variant knowledge, regional (Biobot), June 8:

Outdated in comparison with Walgreens (under) however nonetheless displaying doubling conduct.

NOT UPDATED Variant knowledge, nationwide (Walgreens), June 15:

In 18 days, BA.4/5 has gone from 18 days, 9.66 to twenty-eight.47 (and this isn’t in keeping with some sorta mannequin, like CDC’s NowCast, which gives 35%). Good doubling conduct, implying BA.4/5 needs to be fortunately dominant simply in time for the journey weekend of July 4, good job everybody.

NOT UPDATED Variant knowledge, nationwide (CDC), June 4:

Lambert right here: It’s past irritating how sluggish the variant knowledge is.

From CDC Neighborhood Profile Reviews (PDFs), “Speedy Riser” counties:

The whole lot higher apart from some new pink flecks within the decrease Mississippi.

The earlier launch:

NOTE I shall most actually not be utilizing the CDC’s new “Community Level” metric. As a result of CDC has mixed a number one indicator (instances) with a lagging one (hospitalization) their new metric is a poor warning signal of a surge, and a poor approach to assess private threat. As well as, Covid is a illness you don’t need to get. Even if you’re not hospitalized, you’ll be able to endure from Lengthy Covid, vascular points, and neurological points. For these causes, case counts — recognized to be underestimated, attributable to residence check kits — deserve to face alone as a quantity to be tracked, irrespective of how a lot the political operatives in CDC management wish to obfuscate it. That the “inexperienced map” (which Topol calls a “capitulation” and a “deception”) continues to be up and being taken critically verges on the felony. Use the group transmission instantly under.

Right here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to group transmission. That is the map CDC wants only hospitals to look at, not you:

West Coast, and Midwest are all pink. An increasing number of orange (“substantial”) on the East Coast, with some yellow breaking out. Nice Plains speckled with yellow and blue.

Hospitalization (CDC Neighborhood Profile):

Very unstable.

Loss of life fee (Our World in Data):

Total: 1,040,236 1,039,771. I’ve added an anti-triumphalist Fauci Line.

Stats Watch

Client Sentiment: “United States Michigan Client Sentiment” [Trading Economics]. “The College of Michigan shopper sentiment was downwardly revised to a document low of fifty.0 in June of 2022, from a preliminary studying of fifty.2. The present financial situations subindex sank to an all-time low of 53.8 (vs. 63.3 in Might), and the expectations gauge plunged to 47.5. About 79% of shoppers anticipated unhealthy instances within the 12 months forward for enterprise situations, the very best since 2009. Inflation expectations for the 12 months forward stood at 5.4%, little modified from a preliminary studying or the previous 4 months.”

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The Bezzle: “$100 million price of crypto has been stolen in one other main hack” [CNBC]. “Hackers have stolen $100 million in cryptocurrency from Horizon, a so-called blockchain bridge, within the newest main heist on the planet of decentralized finance…. Blockchain bridges play an enormous function within the DeFi house, providing customers a approach of transferring their property from one blockchain to a different. In Horizon’s case, customers can ship tokens from the Ethereum community to Binance Good Chain. Concord mentioned the assault didn’t have an effect on a separate bridge for bitcoin. Like different aspects of DeFi, which goals to rebuild conventional monetary companies like loans and investments on the blockchain, bridges have turn into a chief goal for hackers attributable to vulnerabilities of their underlying code. Bridges ‘preserve giant shops of liquidity,’ making them a ‘tempting goal for hackers,’ in keeping with Jess Symington, analysis lead at blockchain evaluation agency Elliptic. ‘To ensure that people to make use of bridges to maneuver their funds, property are locked on one blockchain and unlocked, or minted, on one other,’ Symington mentioned. ‘Because of this, these companies maintain giant volumes of cryptoassets.’ Concord has not revealed precisely how the funds had been stolen. Nonetheless, one investor had raised considerations concerning the safety of its Horizon bridge way back to April.” • Hmm. Does make you marvel about collusion between the Founders of DeFi companies and the hackers. Perhaps they cut up the take, and the marks are the one losers?

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As we speak’s Concern & Greed Index: 27 Concern (earlier shut: 22 Excessive Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 14 (Excessive Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Jun 24 at 1:21 PM EDT.

Division of Feline Felicity

Now do baths:

Groves of Academe

Wait. I believed this was a parody account:

Decline of the West Watch

One other historic aberration:

And:

Declining shopper expertise has been happening for a while (Yves dubbed it “crapification”) however Covid is accelerating the method.

Class Warfare

“Artificial Opioids Are an The whole lot Drawback” [RAND]. “The Fee on Combating Artificial Opioid Trafficking. The fee was created by Congress to look at the specter of artificial opioids and devise a strategic strategy to countering the unlawful movement of those medicine into the US…. The fee got here up with 78 recommendations across five pillars for methods to deal with the disaster from each side of this supply-and-demand equation. These vary from cracking down on cash laundering by the felony organizations that manufacture and smuggle artificial opioids to exploring harm-reduction efforts that intention to mitigate the harm related to substance use. The suggestions additionally embody actions that might, if enacted, yield complete and sustainable outcomes, similar to elevating the director of the Workplace of Nationwide Drug Management Coverage to a cabinet-level place and enhancing the analysis and evaluation of ongoing drug market traits.” • So long as there may be despair, there will probably be demand.

Information of the Wired

The datasaurus:

Yikes:


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RM writes: “Oxytropis Lambertii, Lambert’s Locoweed. Ha ha, I can’t resist sending your namesake. The spring rains after two deviating droughts have actually stimulated this quick grass prairie this 12 months.”

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