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Fantasy baseball owners should be wary of overhyped outfielders



#Fantasy #baseball #homeowners #cautious #overhyped #outfielders

March Insanity is all the time filled with surprises, like Farleigh Dickinson taking down Purdue to turn out to be simply the second No. 16 seed ever to oust a No. 1 seed.

Or Princeton topping No. 2 Arizona, marking the third straight 12 months a No. 15 seed has gained a first-round matchup.

It actually is insanity!

However, March Insanity is not only relegated to school basketball. There’s loads of insanity occurring in fantasy baseball drafts.

The insanity begins with Michael Harris — who was the 2022 Nationwide League Rookie of the Yr after hitting 19 homers with 64 RBIs, 75 runs, 20 stolen bases and a .297/.339/.514 slash line in 114 video games for the Braves.

With a stat line like that, there may be sure to be pleasure, proper?

Effectively, perhaps a bit an excessive amount of pleasure.

Atlanta Braves center fielder Michael Harris II makes a catch on a line drive by Washington Nationals' Joey Meneses for an out during the first inning of a baseball game, Monday, Sept. 26, 2022, in Washington.
Harris might not stay as much as the hype he achieved throughout his rookie 12 months.
AP Photograph/Nick Wass, File

In line with Fantasy Alarm, Harris’ common draft place is 37.87, however there are websites which have his ADP as excessive as 24.8 (Underdog Fantasy) or 26.1 (RealTime Fantasy). He’s at 33.3 at Yahoo.

Which means, in some circumstances, Harris is being drafted as a top-10 outfielder or among the many prime 25 total.

That may be a steep worth for a participant who has performed simply 114 video games. There isn’t a arguing the instruments he brings to the desk (and he actually does deliver an entire instrument bag), however there are considerations that make Roto Rage imagine Harris will probably be excellent, however finally not stay as much as that lofty draft standing.

Amongst gamers with a minimal of 400 plate appearances, Harris’ 41.7 p.c chase charge (swings at pitches outdoors of the strike zone) was the twelfth worst within the majors. That aided in his 4.8 p.c stroll charge, which was the 18th-worst within the league, and his 24.3 p.c strikeout charge (the Twenty third-worst mark within the NL).

Harris hit .297, however his far-too-high .361 BABIP signifies luck was on his aspect — and it’s arduous to imagine that quantity is sustainable, particularly when his anticipated batting common (.268) was almost 30 factors decrease than his precise common and his insane 56.2 ground-ball charge was the fourth-highest within the majors.

Oh, his anticipated slugging share (.460) was greater than 50 factors decrease than his precise .514 slugging share. These numbers scream one factor: regression.

How about Harris’ struggles towards left-handed pitching?

In 135 plate appearances towards lefties final season, he hit .238 with 13 runs, 41 strikeouts (30.4 p.c strikeout charge), a .649 OPS and simply seven walks.

Teoscar Hernandez #35 of the Seattle Mariners reacts after an RBI double by Mike Ford #20 during the fourth inning against the San Diego Padres in a spring training game at Peoria Stadium on February 24, 2023 in Peoria, Arizona.
Hernandez joined the Mariners, which may imply a lower in his hitting.
Steph Chambers/Getty Photos

He additionally had a .337 BABIP towards southpaws. That’s problematic.

The issue with Harris isn’t his upside or his expertise, it’s his present price ticket. It’s simply too excessive. To be able to get a great return on him being drafted as a top-25 participant, he has to duplicate his 2022 success (after which some), and that’s no simple process.

There are simply too many crimson flags to pay a premium worth for an inexperienced participant who has numbers pointing towards regression.

Roto Rage would slightly goal extra confirmed outfielders — corresponding to Kyle Schwarber (39.69), Randy Arozarena (47.84) and Cedric Mullins (51.64)

Different outfielders to be cautious of are:

Teoscar Hernandez (76.31) goes from hitter-friendly Toronto to pitcher-haven Seattle.

That isn’t one thing fantasy managers ought to be contemplating luck.

Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds’ (77.31) is a extremely good participant in a foul scenario. He simply doesn’t have sufficient assist within the Pirates’ lineup to offer fantasy homeowners the numbers he’s able to.

Atlanta Braves Ronald Acuna Jr. is greeted in the dugout after driving in a run during the sixth inning of a spring training baseball game against the Minnesota Twins in North Port, Fla., Saturday, March 4, 2023.
Acuña Jr. ranks on the prime of fantasy baseball outfielders.
AP Photograph/Gerald Herbert

He will probably be good, however unlikely to be actually nice … except he lastly getting traded.

The Mets’ Starling Marte (92.29) is an oft-injured 34-year-old with declining dash pace who had offseason surgical procedure and has missed 30 or extra video games in all however one season since 2016. You do the maths.

Washington’s Joey Meneses (182.71) has Frank Schwindel (a la 2021 with the Cubs) sort of vibes — a profession minor leaguer who acquired a chance to play on a staff going nowhere and have become a late-season fantasy hero.

He has acquired a robust swing, however small pattern dimension plus his .371 BABIP raises questions.

Cleveland’s Oscar Gonzalez (188.23) hit .296 with 11 homers, 43 RBIs, 39 runs and a .789 OPS in 91 video games.

It was a stable debut, however his 3.4 p.c stroll charge was within the backside 1 p.c of the league (as was his 48.3 p.c chase charge) and his .345 BABIP is an effective indication regression is coming.


  1. Ronald Acuña Jr.=Atl
  2. Aaron Decide=NYY
  3. Julio Rodriguez=Sea
  4. Juan Soto=SD
  5. Kyle Tucker=Hou
  6. Mookie Betts=LAD
  7. Mike Trout=LAA
  8. Yordan Alvarez=Hou
  9. Fernando Tatis Jr.=SD
  10. Luis Robert=CWS
  11. Randy Arozarena=TB
  12. Kyle Schwarber=Phi
  13. Cedric Mullins=Bal
  14. Adolis Garcia=Tex
  15. Eloy Jimenez=CWS
  16. Daulton Varsho=Tor
  17. Michael Harris II=Atl
  18. Corbin Caroll=Ari
  19. George Springer=Tor
  20. Byron Buxton=Min
  21. Bryan Reynolds=Pit
  22. Starling Marte=NYM
  23. Steven Kwan=Cle
  24. Tyler O’Neill=StL
  25. Teoscar Hernandez=Sea
  26. Seiya Suzuku=ChC
  27. Anthony Santander=Bal
  28. Kris Bryant=Col
  29. Nick Castellanos=Phi
  30. Christian Yelich=Mil
  31. Giancarlo Stanton=NYY
  32. Jake McCarthy=Ari
  33. Ian Happ=ChC
  34. Taylor Ward=LAA
  35. Andrew Vaughn=CWS
  36. Brandon Nimmo=NYM
  37. Mitch Haniger=SF
  38. Hunter Renfroe=LAA
  39. MJ Melendez=KC
  40. Jeff McNeil=NYM
  41. Lars Nootbaar=StL
  42. Jordan Walker=StL
  43. Alex Verdugo=Bos
  44. Masataka Yoshida=Bos
  45. Cody Bellinger=ChC
  46. Oscar Gonzalez=Cle
  47. Riley Greene=Det
  48. Ramon Laureano=Oak
  49. Andrew Benintendi=CWS
  50. Lourdes Gurriel Jr.=Ari
  51. Wil Myers=Cin
  52. Bryan De La Cruz=Mia
  53. Seth Brown=Oak
  54. Jarred Kelenic=Sea
  55. Esteury Ruiz=Oak
  56. Whit Merrifield=Tor
  57. Jorge Soler=Mia
  58. Adam Duvall=Bos
  59. Austin Meadows=Det
  60. Michael Conforto=SF
  61. Alex Kiriloff=Min
  62. Garrett Mitchell=Mil
  63. Jesse Winker=Mil
  64. Joc Pederson=SF
  65. Trey Mancini=ChC
  66. Brendan Donovan=StL
  67. Austin Hays=Bal
  68. Jake Fraley=Cin
  69. Brandon Marsh=Phi
  70. Chris Taylor=LAD
  71. Charlie Blackmon=Col
  72. Avisail Garcia=Mia
  73. Max Kepler=Min
  74. Marcell Ozuna=Atl
  75. Juan Yepez=StL
  76. Lane Thomas=Was
  77. Oscar Colas=CWS
  78. Edward Olivares=KC
  79. Manuel Margot=TB
  80. Harrison Bader=NYY
  81. Trent Grisham=SD
  82. Andrew McCutchen=Pit
  83. Oswaldo Cabrera=NYY
  84. Bubba Thompson=Tex
  85. Kike Hernandez=Bos
  86. Randal Grichuk=Col
  87. Michael Brantley=Hou
  88. AJ Pollock=Sea
  89. Mike Yastrzemski=SF
  90. TJ Friedl=Cin
  91. Jose Siri=TB
  92. Matt Vierling=Dert
  93. Dylan Carlson=StL
  94. Mark Canha=NYM
  95. Jose Lowe=TB
  96. Harold Ramirez=TB
  97. LaMonte Wade Jr.=SF
  98. Alek Thomas=Ari
  99. Sal Frelick=Mil
  100. Nolan Jones=Col

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