Is There a Bitcoin–Macro Disconnect?

Gianluca Benigno and Carlo Rosa

Cryptocurrencies’ market capitalization has grown quickly in recent times. This weblog publish analyzes the position of macro elements as attainable drivers of cryptocurrency costs. We take a high-frequency perspective, and we concentrate on Bitcoin since its market capitalization dwarfs that of all different cryptocurrencies mixed. The important thing discovering is that, in contrast to different asset courses, Bitcoin has not responded considerably to U.S. macro and financial coverage information. This disconnect is puzzling, as sudden modifications in low cost charges ought to, in precept, have an effect on the worth of Bitcoin.

Background

Previous to its latest decline, the market worth of cryptocurrencies reached a staggering $2.5 trillion, with Bitcoin crossing the $1 trillion mark. As well as, Bitcoin represents the lion’s share—between 50 % (these days) and 90 % (in 2016)—of the general capitalization of the digital foreign money market.

Market Capitalization of Bitcoin and Different Cryptocurrencies

Given their rising relevance, it’s pure to review the drivers of cryptocurrency costs. This weblog publish focuses on macroeconomic information and financial coverage surprises. We interpret cryptocurrencies as property whose present worth ought to rely upon the anticipated discounted worth of future values. This characterization implies that, from a macroeconomic standpoint, developments that affect present and future rates of interest, whether or not straight (information about financial coverage) or not directly (information about macroeconomic circumstances), ought to have an effect on the worth of cryptocurrencies.

We use a novel and complete intraday information set to determine the consequences of this information. By counting on high-frequency information in a brief sufficient window round a macro announcement, the info launch is (most probably) the one info systematically hitting the market. Therefore, by wanting on the response of asset costs in that point window round numerous bulletins, this weblog publish conducts the empirical finance model of a pure experiment.

For example, the chart under reveals the response of a number of U.S. asset costs round two varieties of information releases: information about the true economic system, such because the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Scenario report (left panel), and information about financial coverage, particularly the FOMC assembly (proper panel). The June 2016 labor market report contained a lower-than-expected nonfarm payrolls determine, as in comparison with the Bloomberg consensus. Consequently, the greenback instantly depreciated towards the euro by about 1 %, inventory costs declined by about 0.5 %, and gold costs elevated by 2 %. Bitcoin, however, moved sideways. On the June 2021 Fed assembly, the FOMC signaled that rates of interest wanted to rise sooner and quicker than market members had anticipated. Once more, the greenback, gold, and inventory costs instantly responded to the discharge, however Bitcoin didn’t reply in a scientific method.

Response of U.S. Asset Costs to Macroeconomic and Financial Coverage Information

Evaluation and Outcomes

We systematically analyze the response of the EUR/USD change charge, gold, the S&P 500, and Bitcoin to 10 units of macro bulletins which were singled out as essential within the tutorial literature. In learning the responses of chosen asset costs to macroeconomic and financial coverage information, we concentrate on the 2000-2022 interval for all property besides Bitcoin, for which we selected a restricted (extra significant) pattern ranging from 2017. (For extra particulars on the evaluation, see our associated Staff Report on the subject.) We acquire totally different items of macro information, overlaying the true economic system and inflation, in addition to financial coverage surprises. For financial coverage information, we think about three distinct dimensions. The primary indicator, Goal, captures unanticipated modifications within the present federal funds charge goal. The second indicator, Path, captures unanticipated modifications sooner or later path of coverage. The third indicator, LSAP, captures unanticipated bulletins of future massive‐scale asset purchases.

Our priors are primarily based on a easy asset pricing mannequin for Bitcoin. We mannequin Bitcoin as an asset with no intrinsic worth whose present worth is dependent upon the discounted worth of its future worth (for our beloved wonks, a “stochastic bubble”). We additionally accommodate the opportunity of the asset having no worth with a likelihood that relies upon positively on present and future rates of interest. Since financial coverage information impacts each present and future rates of interest, it ought to be related to Bitcoin valuation, whereas macroeconomic information has an oblique impression by means of the financial coverage response operate.

By counting on the regressions’ estimates, we are able to check to what extent the response of an asset worth to a given macroeconomic announcement is systematic. The desk under reviews the connection between property (columns) and chosen macroeconomic and financial information (rows). The shading signifies whether or not the response is systematic, with darker colours similar to extra statistically vital results. The image inside every cell signifies the signal of the correlation between asset returns and information. We discover that the EUR/USD change charge, gold, and the S&P 500 considerably react to most macro and financial information. In stark distinction, the response of Bitcoin is muted, and by no means vital on the 1 % stage even after we concentrate on simply financial coverage information.

Evaluating Asset Value Responses to Information Occasions

Conclusions

So… is macroeconomic information driving Bitcoin? On this publish, we conduct a scientific evaluation of the impression of macroeconomic and financial coverage information on Bitcoin’s worth. In distinction to change charges and shares, Bitcoin is basically unresponsive to macro information. Extra puzzling is the end result that Bitcoin doesn’t additionally react to financial coverage surprises. At face worth, our examine casts some doubts on the position of low cost charges in pricing Bitcoin. Given the brief pattern used within the evaluation, the jury continues to be out on this one, and extra proof is required to place the case to relaxation.

Gianluca Benigno is the pinnacle of Worldwide Research within the Federal Reserve Financial institution of New York’s Analysis and Statistics Group and a professor of economics on the College of Lausanne.

Carlo Rosa is an assistant professor on the College of Parma (Italy).

How you can cite this publish:
Gianluca Benigno and Carlo Rosa, “Is There a Bitcoin–Macro Disconnect?,” Federal Reserve Financial institution of New York Liberty Avenue Economics, February 8, 2023, https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/02/is-there-a-bitcoin-macro-disconnect/.