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Stunning news as Ukraine reportedly sinks Russia’s Black Sea Fleet flagship

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#Beautiful #information #Ukraine #reportedly #sinks #Russias #Black #Sea #Fleet #flagship

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The Moskva, as soon as proud flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, went and fucked itself.

(I’m basing this report on early info. The fog of conflict is thick. So strategy every part with acceptable hesitation and skepticism.)

The day’s massive conflict information is … it’s massive. Ukraine has sunk the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the guided missile cruiser Moskva—the very ship Ukrainians informed to go fuck themselves on the primary day of the conflict. 

Additional studies say the ship has sunk, with Russia evacuating “some” of the ship’s sailors. Whereas it’s uncertain we get a truthful account of casualties from the Russians, that is possible the most important mass-casualty occasion for the invaders this whole conflict, whereas shedding a ship possible costing within the a whole lot of thousands and thousands of {dollars}. (An American guided missile cruiser prices round $1 billion.)

Piecing collectively studies from the Open Supply Intelligence Group and Russian studies, we’re getting an image of how the operation performed out. (And be aware, there may be loads of misinformation floating round, like this, so I’ve been very cautious piecing this collectively.)

To start with, there’s this bit of stories that emerged right now: 

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Nobody will affirm, for a very long time, whether or not concentrating on was aided by American intelligence, however Open Supply Intelligence (OSINT) sources who monitor plane flights declare that every one NATO intelligence planes had cleared out of the Black Sea previous to the assault (or at the very least turned off their transponders, making them go darkish). 

Based on a supposed Russian intercept (contemplate info unconfirmed), Ukraine flew a TB2 Bayraktar round Mykolaiv, grabbing the Moskva’s consideration, which has apparently been offering anti-air radar and missile providers through the conflict. A translation by a random Twitter consumer translated the gist of the intercept (filled with navy slang that stymied lots of people):

A “computer virus” plane was flying between Voznesensk and Mykolaiv, round Kryviy Rih. Moskva was offering lengthy vary air protection for them and acquired distracted lengthy sufficient, with the goal AND poor climate as nicely, to have two Neptunes stick their tridents by means of the hull.

Thus, centered on the drone on the Ukrainian mainland, the Neptunes flew in beneath cowl of distraction and stormy seas to hit the ship. Another Russian report, posted a number of occasions by a number of credible OSINT individuals, reported an analogous sequence of occasions (working it by means of Google Translate):

Based on preliminary info, the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet cruiser “Moscow” sank.

The official info of the Ministry of Protection of the Russian Federation, which appeared solely at 2 o’clock within the morning, states that because of the fireplace there was a partial detonation of ammunition, and a part of the crew was evacuated.

Based on info from Ukraine, which appeared lengthy earlier than the assertion of the Russian Protection Ministry, the cruiser “Moscow” was destroyed by the RCC “Neptune”.

Based on our preliminary info, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the cruiser Moscow, was certainly attacked by the Neptune RCC from the shoreline between Odessa and Nikolaev. The ship’s forces had been additionally diverted to counter the Bayraktar TB-2 UAV. The blow hit the port aspect, because of which the ship took a powerful roll. After the specter of detonation of ammunition, the crew of about ~ 500 individuals was evacuated. The buoyancy of the cruiser was difficult by marine climate situations. Because of all combination elements, in response to preliminary info, and sadly, the cruiser joined the underwater satellite tv for pc group “Roskomos”.

Roskomos is the Russian NASA. Another person can attempt to work out the reference, however it’s clearly some form of cultural slang. I used to be going to make a joke about how Russian ships can’t stroll and chew gum on the similar time, however apparently that’s truly true. After some digging, seems that the Moskva may solely monitor a single goal at a time. [Update: this was wrong, see update below.] And for some loopy cause, there was no different anti-missile protection functionality on board. On their costly flagship!

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The once-proud flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the Moskva guided missile cruiser.

Did we simply be taught that the Russian navy is as hole as its military?

What took so lengthy for Ukraine to deploy its Neptune anti-ship missiles? The Neptune venture was first introduced in 2015 and slated for deployment final yr. But none had appeared, whereas Ukraine requested NATO for anti-ship capabilities. Perhaps that they had by no means been delivered. Weapons techniques famously endure from schedule delays. 

Seems Ukraine did have them. But when Ukraine solely had a handful of those, their worth would’ve been immeasurable throughout a contested amphibious assault on Odesa. Higher to sink a touchdown ship with 1,000 naval infantry aboard than to battle them on land. With the specter of any assault on Odesa lengthy gone, and Russia’s navy now complacent, the Moskva—named after Russia’s capitalwas an irresistible goal.

The missile has a recognized vary of 100 kilometers (62 mi), so it’d’ve simply been a query of ready for the proper alternative: For the ship to sail inside vary, for the climate to be proper, for the ship’s radar to “paint” the drone making an attempt to distract it, and any variety of different intangibles we will’t even start to guess at. The rain and tough seas definitely helped masks the missiles’ strategy and, simply as importantly, any rescue and salvage efforts. 

It is a navy victory. Russia has simply misplaced an anti-aircraft radar and missile system that would see deep into Ukraine. Survivability of Ukrainian air property simply improved. It is usually a dramatic propaganda victory, one more blow to Russian delight and morale, whereas dramatically rising the price of the conflict for Russia. 

And Russia can’t blame NATO for this assault! The missiles taking down the Moskva had been an all-Ukrainian manufacturing. Merely sensible. 

In the meantime, Ukraine is taking a web page from its Belgorod assault and cheekily pretending it had nothing to do with it. Try Oleksiy Arestovych, navy advisor to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy:

“Who, us? It was in all probability a few cigarettes!” Freakin’ sensible! Ukraine has actually mastered the artwork of gloating with out gloating. Oh, if solely we may very well be a fly within the wall as Vladimir Putin acquired the information!

Russian warship went and fucked itself.


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Thursday, Apr 14, 2022 · 3:02:04 AM +00:00 · kos

The extra I give it some thought, the extra I’m satisfied that there needed to be an American/NATO digital surveillance airplane within the Black Sea, transponder off, monitoring what ship was portray the TB2 decoy with radar. There’s nothing on the Ukrainian aspect that would do this. It’s very superior surveillance electronics. 

What’s surprising to me, as soon as once more, is how incapable Russian navy is of speaking to one another. A fleet exists for a cause. They work collectively. This one is listening for submarines, that one is searching for mines, and hey, let’s preserve an eye fixed out within the sky. And in the event that they know {that a} ship is uncovered when doing its job, one other ship fills the hole. But Russia 

Thursday, Apr 14, 2022 · 5:54:05 AM +00:00 · kos

Okay, I’ve clarification on the “stroll and chew gum on the similar time” radar scenario: 

As well as, as a result of presence of just one 3P41 Volna steering radar, the Fort anti-aircraft advanced can be utilized to repel an assault from just one course at a time, and if a single 3P41 Volna radar fails, long-range air protection of the ship might be fully paralyzed. For comparability, Venture 1144 cruisers have two 3P41 radars, which permits them to repel assaults from a number of instructions on the similar time and never danger shedding their defenses when the radar fails.

I confused “one course at a time” with “one goal at a time.” Nonetheless pathetic and lame, however not as lame as I initially understood. 

Additionally, taking a look at a map, the TB2 and the Neptunes got here from the identical course. Neptunes solely paint their goal on ultimate strategy, so it’s all the time doable they had been directed to the opposite aspect of the Moskva after which looped round when their radar was activated. However I’m going to imagine the only rationalization: the ship’s defensive techniques merely didn’t work, like 95% of the remainder of the Russian navy.